We hope that the reader will find this book a rich menu of procedures from which he may select his own repast if he should seek to employ the Delphi technique. To accomplish this "structured communication" there is provided: some feedback of individual contributions of information and knowledge some assessment of the group judgment or' view some opportunity for individuals to revise views and some degree of anonymity for the individual responses, As the reader will discover, there are many different views on what are the "proper," "appropriate," "best," and/or "useful" procedures for accomplishing the various specific aspects of Delphi. As long as we restrict ourselves to a very general view, it is not difficult to present an acceptable definition of the Delphi technique which can be taken as underlying the contributions to this book: Delphi may be characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem. However, as editors, we would be remiss if there were not some common thread underlying the articles brought together in this volume. For, if anything is "true" about Delphi today, it is that in its design and use Delphi is more of an art than a science. For a technique that can be considered to be in its infancy, it would be presumptuous of us to present Delphi in the cloak of a neatly wrapped package, sitting on the shelf and ready to use, Rather, we have adopted the approach, through our selection of contributions, of exhibiting a number of different objects having the Delphi label and inviting you to sculpt from these examples your own view and assessment of the technique. The reader will encounter in these pages many different perspectives on the Delphi method and an exceedingly diverse range of applications. It is the objective of this book to expose the richness of what may be viewed as an evolving field of human endeavor. The technique and its application are in a period of evolution, both with respect to how it is applied and to what it is applied. In 1969 the number of Delphi studies that had been done could be counted in three digits today, in 1974, the figure may have already reached four digits. There is in addition a philosophical perspective that when something has attained a point at which it is explicitly definable, then progress has stopped such is the view we hold with respect to Delphi. However, if we were to attempt this, the reader would no doubt encounter at least one contribution to this collection which would violate our definition. LINSTONE and MURRAY TUROFF General Remarks It is common, in a book of this kind, to begin with a detailed and explicit definition of the subject- the Delphi technique.
Olaf Helmer University of Southern California Murray Turoff New Jersey Institute of Technology With a Foreword by The Delphi Method Techniques and Applications Edited by
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